Das ökonomische Paradoxon Iran

Plenty of Oil, but Few Refineries for Iran

By BRIAN MURPHY

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran is flush with huge oil reserves and cash, but a refinery shortage leaves it heavily dependent on imported gasoline and diesel to keeps its cars and trucks rolling. That's one reason the country- already beset with economic troubles- is desperate to avoid U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program. "Oil is where Iran is most vulnerable," said Behzad Nabavi, a former lawmaker who also headed a state-directed oil company, Petropars. "It's one of the great economic paradoxes."

Even a moderate drop in gasoline or diesel imports as a result of sanctions would be a punishing blow for an economy with many soft spots- double-digit inflation, chronic unemployment and cumbersome state controls among them. One of the possible sanctions under consideration Thursday at a meeting in Austria of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany will be an embargo on exporting refined petroleum products to Iran. After a flurry of telephone diplomacy, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Wednesday that the Americans would be ready to join in talks with Iran over the nuclear dispute.

Iran imports more than 40 percent of its gasoline and diesel needs. It comes mostly from the Middle East but also from as far away as Venezuela. Closing the import tap could force Iran to either impose rationing- as it did during the 1980-88 war with Iraq- or raise prices and risk a backlash from a public accustomed to paying more for bottled water than gasoline.

Making up the refinery shortage would take years, meaning Iran would have no alternative fuel supplies if hit by U.N. sanctions. The United States and its European allies want sanctions imposed if Iran refuses to give up its uranium enrichment program, which is feared to be designed for producing nuclear weapons. "Iran really does not have a lot of room to maneuver on the basic issue of refinery capacity and demand," said Narsi Ghorban, an independent energy consultant based in Tehran.

"Iran has a vision of being a regional economic and technological powerhouse. They know very well this vision will not be realized ... by domestic companies alone," said Siamak Namazi, managing director of Atieh Bahar Consulting, a Tehran-based firm providing economic surveys and analysis. "High oil prices mean (Iran) is less reliant on outside financing. They have their own money. But that doesn't help the technology gap," he said. Many other investors have either pulled out of the Iranian market or put plans on hold on fears the nuclear standoff could lead to U.N. punishments or possible military action.

Yet that hasn't stopped everyone. Suitors keep knocking at the door for a piece of Iran's energy wealth, including its vast natural gas reserves. China's state energy company has signed deals for natural gas. India and Pakistan are negotiating for a possible pipeline from Iran's natural gas fields. Those deals display the growing disregard for Washington policy. In 1996, the U.S. said it would consider sanctions on any company that invests more than $20 million annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. The threat was never enforced.
© 2006 The Associated Press

Womöglich sollte bei künftigen Verhandlungen mit dem Iran als "Bonbon" nicht der Bau von modernen Leichtwasserreaktoren abgeboten werden sondern die Montage effektiv arbeitender Raffinerien!