dont-set-the-world-on-fire

25 Juni 2006

Iran plant unverzüglich Gespräche mit Solana

Teheran (dpa) - Der Iran plant ein Treffen mit dem EU- Außenbeauftragten Javier Solana über die internationalen Vorschläge im Atomstreit. Der iranische Nuklear-Chefunterhändler Ali Larijani sagte: «Ich denke, dass ich bald mit Solana zusammenkomme und dass das Treffen nützlich ist, um bestimmte Fragen im Zusammenhang mit dem Vorschlag zu klären.» Der Iran stehe diesen Vermittlungsplänen im wesentlichen positiv gegenüber. Deutschland hatte den Iran nochmals eindringlich zu einem raschen Einlenken im Atomstreit aufgefordert.


Trügt mich hier mein Gespür, oder zeichnet sich trotz manch bedenklicher präsidialer Zwischentöne aus Washington und Teheran nicht immer mehr eine diplomatische Lösung dieses Konfliktes ab?

24 Juni 2006

USA stellt nukleartechnologische Kooperation mit Indien in Frage

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India said on Friday a landmark nuclear deal with the United States should be based on the original commitments made by the two sides, sidestepping new moves to link the pact to its stand on Iran's atomic program. New Delhi's comments came after a leading U.S. lawmaker warned this week the civilian nuclear energy cooperation deal could be jeopardized if India sided with non-aligned states in backing Iran's atomic ambitions.

Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of California said the controversial deal was on track to be voted on by the Congress next month, but approval would be at risk if leaders in New Delhi did not "act responsibly." A draft of the bill prepared for action next week by a key House of Representatives committee also calls for New Delhi's support for Washington's efforts to stop Tehran acquiring weapons of mass destruction. "There have been a number of U.S. senators and congressmen who have expressed different views concerning the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement," an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman said in response to questions about Lantos' remarks.

"We have been negotiating the nuclear deal with the U.S. administration on the pemise that it is an agreement about civil nuclear energy cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit." The deal should be based on commitments made by the two countries when it was first agreed in principle last year and it was the responsibility of the U.S. administration to get the legislation approved by Congress, he added. India's traditional ties with Iran have haunted the controversial pact since
President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to it last July.

Although New Delhi has since backed Washington at the International Atomic Energy Agency against Tehran's atomic program, its decision to oppose its old friend and a major source of its soaring energy needs drew strong criticism at home. As a result, India has been cagey of making any clear commitments against Iran.

The nuclear deal aims to reverse a three-decade ban on sales of U.S. atomic fuel and reactors to India as ties between the two countries, once on opposite sides of the Cold War, warm considerably. But members of the U.S. congress and non-proliferation experts have criticized it, saying it encourages weapons proliferation as India has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.


Wieder einmal zeigt sich hier, daß die derzeitige Bush-Regierung in ihren außenpolitischen Beziehungen ungerne Ambivalenzen duldet, sie wollen nicht den kleinen Finger, sondern sie fordern stets die ganze Hand! Es bleibt abzuwarten, wie sich das geopolitisch und strategisch so wichtige Indien positionieren wird.

19 Juni 2006

Ein Schritt zurück

King's Point (AFP) - US-Präsident George W. Bush hat dem Iran mit schärferen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Sanktionen gedroht, sollte das Land nicht seine umstrittenen Nuklearaktivitäten einstellen. "Wenn die iranische Führung unser Angebot ablehnt, wird der Fall vor den UN-Sicherheitsrat gebracht, der Iran international noch stärker isoliert, und es wird schrittweise schärfere politische und wirtschaftliche Sanktionen geben", sagte Bush am Montag in King's Point im US-Bundesstaat New York.

Die USA und ihre Partner seien "vereint", fügte er hinzu. Das Angebot der fünf UN-Vetomächte und Deutschlands sei "vernünftig" und eine "historische Gelegenheit" für die iranische Regierung, "ihr Land auf einen besseren Kurs zu bringen". Bush zeigte Verständnis für den "legitimen Wunsch" der Iraner, zivile Atomenergie zu nutzen, solange diese "mit echten internationalen Schutzmechanismen einhergehen".
Das iranische Fernsehen zitierte Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad mit den Worten, Teheran wolle einen "gerechten und gleichberechtigten Dialog ohne Vorbedingungen". Ein Gegenvorschlag zum internationalen Verhandlungsangebot sei "in Arbeit".



Nachdem sich noch vor einigen Tagen eine gewisse Entspannung in diesem Konflikt abgezeichnet hat, verschärft der amerikanische Präsident wieder die Tonlage. Warum er das gerade jetzt macht, darüber darf gerne spekuliert werden!

16 Juni 2006

Ein Schritt vorwärts

Schanghai/Wien/Teheran (dpa) - Der Iran sieht in dem Vermittlungsvorschlag der fünf ständigen Mitglieder des Weltsicherheitsrates und Deutschlands zur Lösung des Atomstreits einen Schritt vorwärts. "Wir werden es (das Paket) sorgfältig prüfen und zu gegebener Zeit antworten". Das sagte der iranische Präsident Mahmud Ahmadinedschad am Freitag in Schanghai. Erst am Vortag hatte der iranische Vertreter bei der Sitzung des Gouverneursrates der Internationalen Atomenergie-Organisation (IAEO) in Wien die Bereitschaft seines Landes zu Verhandlungen mit den UN- Vetomächten und Deutschland erklärt.

Der Gouverneursrat hatte Teheran aufgefordert, weiter mit der UN- Atombehörde zusammenzuarbeiten. Die überwältigende Mehrheit der 35 Mitgliedsländer habe Teheran gedrängt, die in den vergangenen Wochen nahezu eingestellte Kooperation mit Wien wieder aufzunehmen, sagte ein westlicher Diplomat nach dem Treffen am Donnerstag. In Schanghai hatte der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin am Donnerstag erklärt, er rechne in naher Zukunft mit einer iranischen Antwort auf die Vorschläge zur Lösung des Atomstreites. Die iranische Seite habe sehr positiv auf die Vorschläge reagiert.

Der chinesische Staats- und Parteichef Hu Jintao forderte Ahmadinedschad am Freitag auf, die Vorschläge ernsthaft zu prüfen und aktiv zu antworten. Der Iran solle die Nukleargespräche bald wieder aufnehmen. Das neue Vorschlagspaket biete eine neue Gelegenheit für die Lösung des Problems, sagte Hu Jintao. China verstehe Irans Besorgnisse über sein Recht zur friedlichen Nutzung der Kernenergie. Ahmadinedschad war wegen des Gipfeltreffens der Schanghaier Kooperationsorganisation (SCO) in der Hafenstadt. Der Iran hat Beobachterstatus in der SCO.

Der Zentralrat der Juden in Deutschland forderte die Bundesregierung am Freitag auf, gegen den Iran Wirtschaftssanktionen zu verhängen. Die Bundesregierung muss ihrer Kritik an dem Mullah- Regime endlich Taten folgen lassen, sagte der Generalsekretär des Zentralrates, Stephan Kramer, der Netzeitung. Kramer warf der Bundesregierung eine mangelnde politische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Iran vor.



Ob die positiven Signale Ahmadinedschads ernstgemeint sind, oder ob es sich nur um eine weitere Hinhaltetaktik des Irans handelt, muß die Zukunft zeigen.

15 Juni 2006

Blockfreie Staaten unterstützen Iran

VIENNA--The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was set for a debate on Iran that could start on Wednesday or Thursday at the meeting in Vienna of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors. South African delegate chief Abdul Minty said that non-aligned countries would repeat in Vienna a call made by non-aligned foreign ministers in Kuala Lumpur in May that backs Iran's right to the nuclear fuel activity of uranium enrichment, which can also be used to make nuclear weapons material.

Diplomats said that Washington was fighting to prevent such a statement at the Vienna-based IAEA as the United States wants to keep up pressure on Iran. But many non-aligned states aspire to nuclear technology and are as much concerned about protecting their right to enrich uranium as Iran's, diplomats said. The United States wanted the bloc of 16 mostly developing nations on the IAEA board to stick to a February IAEA resolution that eight of the non-aligned had supported. It had called on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in order to establish international confidence and start talks.

Iran's Ambassador the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that Iran appreciated the non-aligned position. "For the past three years, the uninterrupted support of the NAM [non-aligned movement] has been invaluable," Soltanieh told reporters, adding that the stance from the 116-nation bloc "shows that the majority of the international community supports Iran."

World powers stressed the benefits that Iran can draw from guaranteeing that its nuclear program is peaceful and downplayed the threat of sanctions when they had offered Tehran the deal last week, diplomats said. The incentives package does stipulate, however, that Tehran has to suspend uranium enrichment until its nuclear activities are proven to be peaceful, according to a copy of the confidential text.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana did not present a list of sanctions in the text that he handed over personally on June 6 in Tehran to Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, the diplomats said. "We only handed over the positive part. The idea was not to give Iran a pretext to turn the proposal down," a European diplomat close to the IAEA said. But Western diplomats have stressed that there are two paths open to Iran, one of cooperation and benefits and the other of UN penalties. [AFP]


Wenn die blockfreien Staaten Irans Urananreicherungsprogramm unterstützen, weil sie selbst Ambitionen in diese Richtung haben, macht dies dann nicht die Sanktionsdrohungen zu einem zahnlosen Papiertiger, da sich viele Staaten nicht daran gebunden werden fühlen? Wenn, den Iran als Vorbild nehmend, dutzende anderer Länder mit einer Urananreicherung bis hin zur Nuklearwaffenfähigkeit beginnen, macht dies die Welt wirklich gerechter oder gar sicherer?

09 Juni 2006

Iran macht weiter

Iran begins fresh atom enrichment despite powers' offer

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday. The report, emailed to the 35 states on the International Atomic Energy Agency's governing board ahead of a meeting starting on Monday, also said Iran was pressing ahead with installing more cascades of centrifuge enrichment machines. Authored by IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, the report said Iran resumed feeding "UF6" uranium gas into its pilot 164-centrifuge cascade in Natanz on Tuesday after a pause of several weeks to do test runs of the machines without UF6.

Tuesday was the day European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana visited Tehran to hand over a packet of economic, technological and security incentives for Iran to suspend work which could eventually produce atomic bombs. The Islamic Republic says the goal of its nuclear fuel program is solely electricity generation for its economy. The West suspects Iran, the world's No. 4 oil producer, of creating a smokescreen for atomic bombmaking.

"This underlines the fact that the temporary halt was technical in nature. It's a continuation of Iranian policy to profit from all worlds, dialogue to gain time while continuing to strive for an atomic bomb," the source said. ElBaradei's report said Iran had also launched a new drive on Tuesday to transform raw uranium ore into UF6 gas at its Isfahan conversion plant. As of April, Iran has stockpiled 118 tonnes of UF6 at Isfahan.

A senior U.N. official familiar with ElBaradei's report said a few of the 164 centrifuges in the Natanz cascade had crashed since April but Iranian scientists apparently isolated the problem and kept the rest of the network running. But he said the pause in enrichment could also have been prompted by a wish "not to rock the boat" at a crunch time in Iran's stand-off with six world powers, who agreed last week to consider sanctions if Tehran rebuffed the incentives package.

With 164 centrifuges, it would take more than 10 years to produce enough highly enriched uranium (HEU), the fissile core of an atomic bomb. But Iran has said it aims to have 3,000 centrifuges installed by early 2007, enough to yield highly enriched uranium for a warhead within a year if spinning nonstop. The report confirmed word from diplomats that new traces of hihgly enriched uranium had turned up on equipment that may have come from Lavizan-Shian, a former military site razed by Iran in 2004 before IAEA inspectors could get there to examine it.

ElBaradei's report said Tehran in general was still stonewalling IAEA probes into military links with nuclear fuel work, echoing earlier assessments. Vienna diplomats familiar with IAEA inquiries say Iran is withholding answers as bargaining chips for any talks with U.N. Security Council powers on its nuclear goals.
By Mark Heinrich


Wenn der Iran tatsächlich bis nächstes Jahr 10.000 funktionsfähige Zentrifugen besitzt, ist er wirklich nicht mehr weit davon entfernt, selbst Nuklearwaffen produzieren zu können. Die Bedingung für die, diese Woche angebotenen Gespräche, daß der Iran seine Urananreicherung vorerst stoppen soll, wird Ahmadinedschad wohl kaum erfüllen, denn alles andere würde für ihn einen erheblichen Gesichtsverlust bedeuten.

02 Juni 2006

Das ökonomische Paradoxon Iran

Plenty of Oil, but Few Refineries for Iran

By BRIAN MURPHY

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran is flush with huge oil reserves and cash, but a refinery shortage leaves it heavily dependent on imported gasoline and diesel to keeps its cars and trucks rolling. That's one reason the country- already beset with economic troubles- is desperate to avoid U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program. "Oil is where Iran is most vulnerable," said Behzad Nabavi, a former lawmaker who also headed a state-directed oil company, Petropars. "It's one of the great economic paradoxes."

Even a moderate drop in gasoline or diesel imports as a result of sanctions would be a punishing blow for an economy with many soft spots- double-digit inflation, chronic unemployment and cumbersome state controls among them. One of the possible sanctions under consideration Thursday at a meeting in Austria of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany will be an embargo on exporting refined petroleum products to Iran. After a flurry of telephone diplomacy, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Wednesday that the Americans would be ready to join in talks with Iran over the nuclear dispute.

Iran imports more than 40 percent of its gasoline and diesel needs. It comes mostly from the Middle East but also from as far away as Venezuela. Closing the import tap could force Iran to either impose rationing- as it did during the 1980-88 war with Iraq- or raise prices and risk a backlash from a public accustomed to paying more for bottled water than gasoline.

Making up the refinery shortage would take years, meaning Iran would have no alternative fuel supplies if hit by U.N. sanctions. The United States and its European allies want sanctions imposed if Iran refuses to give up its uranium enrichment program, which is feared to be designed for producing nuclear weapons. "Iran really does not have a lot of room to maneuver on the basic issue of refinery capacity and demand," said Narsi Ghorban, an independent energy consultant based in Tehran.

"Iran has a vision of being a regional economic and technological powerhouse. They know very well this vision will not be realized ... by domestic companies alone," said Siamak Namazi, managing director of Atieh Bahar Consulting, a Tehran-based firm providing economic surveys and analysis. "High oil prices mean (Iran) is less reliant on outside financing. They have their own money. But that doesn't help the technology gap," he said. Many other investors have either pulled out of the Iranian market or put plans on hold on fears the nuclear standoff could lead to U.N. punishments or possible military action.

Yet that hasn't stopped everyone. Suitors keep knocking at the door for a piece of Iran's energy wealth, including its vast natural gas reserves. China's state energy company has signed deals for natural gas. India and Pakistan are negotiating for a possible pipeline from Iran's natural gas fields. Those deals display the growing disregard for Washington policy. In 1996, the U.S. said it would consider sanctions on any company that invests more than $20 million annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. The threat was never enforced.
© 2006 The Associated Press


Womöglich sollte bei künftigen Verhandlungen mit dem Iran als "Bonbon" nicht der Bau von modernen Leichtwasserreaktoren abgeboten werden sondern die Montage effektiv arbeitender Raffinerien!